The Truth About a Housing Market Crash in 2026

If you’ve been seeing headlines predicting a crash, it’s important to separate fear from facts. When it comes to the Housing Market Crash 2026, the data simply doesn’t support the panic-driven predictions circulating online.

Of course, trends vary by area. Some markets may see faster gains, while others might experience small, short-term dips. But nationally, home prices are projected to rise over the next five years, not fall.

What the Experts Are Saying

In the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae, over 100 leading housing market experts share their forecasts each quarter. The latest report shows a consistent consensus: prices are expected to climb nationally through at least 2029.

Notice how even the most pessimistic forecasters say we’ll see prices rise by almost 5% over the next few years.

Overall, analysts anticipate about a 15% increase in home values by the end of 2029, with optimists predicting up to 26% growth. Even the most cautious experts agree on a 5% increase.

What sticks out the most? None of these groups who study the market are forecasting a crash, or even a decline, over the next 5 years.

How This Compares to Typical Market Growth

The forecast predicts 2–3.5% annual growth, slightly below the 25-year average of 4–5%, but much more stable than the rapid increases seen in 2020–2022, when some areas spiked 15–20%.

That previous surge was fueled by record-low supply and record-high demand. Now, the market is settling into a more balanced and sustainable pace.

Why a Crash Isn’t Expected

Many fear a downturn because of the old saying, “what goes up must come down.” But historically, that hasn’t been the case. Home prices almost always rise over time.

The main reason? Supply and demand. Despite affordability challenges in recent years, there simply aren’t enough homes for everyone who wants one, keeping upward pressure on prices nationwide.

That’s why experts across the board can confidently agree: we’re not headed for a price collapse, but for steady, long-term appreciation.

Even during economic fluctuations over the past 50 years, the housing market has consistently recovered — and we’re entering the next phase of that cycle now.

Bottom Line

If fear of a crash has been holding you back from buying or selling, it’s time to focus on the data rather than the headlines.

The question isn’t if home prices will rise, it’s by how much.

Call me, Teresa Hill, and I’ll walk you through what these forecasts mean for your local market and your next move. Let’s make sure you’re confident in every decision — whether buying, selling, or planning for the future.

*Information and Graphic sourced from Fannie Mae, NAR, Realtor.com, & Keeping Current Matters